Türkiye’s Prescribed Role for the Coming Phase

(Translated)

Al-Rayah Newspaper - Issue 618 - 23/09/2026

By: Fuad Hamid Ayoub

Axios reported that the White House recently released details of the Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy. This 33-page document focused on several issues, most notably the Muslim World. U.S. interest in the Middle East stems from the region's geographic importance and unique geopolitical location. The strategy dedicated two pages to the Middle East file, outlining a vision for the region's future amidst ongoing conflicts and detailing U.S. intentions to reshape the balance of power for the post-war era—specifically following a potential war with Iran. The core elements of the U.S. strategy for the “New Middle East,” or what are known as post-regional-war plans, center on key strategic pillars through which the Trump administration seeks to reconfigure security and political alliances. These include establishing a regional deterrent alliance—such as the Makkah Pact for joint defense—to manage or curb Iran’s influence; securing waterways and energy routes; resolving the Gaza issue in line with the U.S. vision; expanding the Abraham Accords and normalization with the Jewish entity, while ensuring its security; fostering economic and technological integration; restructuring NATO based on defense spending, that is, “pay-to-participate;” and addressing the issue of China. In short, this entails reshaping the Middle East—a region situated at the heart of the world where Asia, Africa, and Europe converge. It serves as a primary hub for global energy markets, boasting a unique combination of vast fossil fuel reserves and immense renewable energy potential, with a population of 469 million.

This raises a crucial question: Can the United States—despite existing challenges—undertake this reshaping of the Middle East unilaterally and directly? That is, can it act without a regional intermediary or ally to serve as a lifeline, while simultaneously sidelining all rivals? Will this project—at once new and old—succeed?

Why Türkiye, specifically?

Regarding its position on the map of the Middle East, Türkiye lies at the crossroads of the Old World continents—Asia, Europe, and Africa. This grants it a unique geopolitical location, positioning it as a vital bridge and corridor between East and West. Türkiye’s geopolitical significance stems from the following factors:

- Its location allows it to control key waterways, including the Black Sea to the north, the Bosphorus Strait and the Aegean Sea to the west, and the Mediterranean Sea to the south.

- It serves as an energy security hub, acting as a major transit route for transporting gas and oil from the Caspian Sea and Central Asia to Europe via strategic pipelines such as TANAP and TurkStream.

- It acts as a commercial nexus, the “Middle Corridor,” linking Asia to Europe via the ancient Silk Road and modern transport initiatives—such as the Armenia–Azerbaijan Zangezur Corridor and the Iraq-Europe Development Road—thereby establishing itself as a global trade hub.

- It is a military power within NATO, possessing the alliance's second-largest army and standing as its only Muslim-majority member, which reinforces its security role in the Middle East.

- Regional and cultural depth: It possesses close ties with Central Asian states through the Organization of Turkic States, as well as within its Muslim and Middle Eastern spheres.

- High degree of self-sufficiency in the agricultural and food sectors: It ranks first in Europe and eighth globally in agricultural production, yielding hundreds of crop varieties—effectively serving as a safeguard for global food security.

- Deep-rooted historical and Islamic significance: It was the seat of the Uthmani Khilafah (Ottoman Caliphate) for 624 years; at its peak in 1683, the Ottoman Caliphate spanned approximately 5.2 to 5.5 million square kilometers. Consequently, it possesses the fundamental attributes of a true power, provided the requisite political will exists.

- Immense diversity and abundance of natural resources—such as minerals and others—bestowed upon the land by Allah (swt).

- The Eastern Mediterranean holds vast gas reserves estimated at over 3 trillion cubic meters.

- Significant quantities of oil are located on the Mediterranean seabed.

Türkiye’s designated role for the coming phase is not merely regional, but pivotal:

As the astute observer and political analyst can see, these geopolitical realities have whetted America's appetite, prompting it to entrust Türkiye with implementing its policies in the region by proxy across a range of sensitive and complex issues—including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Iran, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Cyprus, Gaza, and even the Gulf region. Erdoğan has been in power for over a quarter of a century and has previously handled these issues in service of American interests; however, it appears that this time he will play a pivotal role—extending beyond the merely regional—in reshaping the region according to the American vision. In other words, Erdoğan is implementing the US-charted policy for the coming phase along two parallel tracks: the political and the popular. Politically, he is working to “Americanize” the Middle East, specifically regarding energy—controlling both its production and marketing. A prime example is the Iraq-Europe Development Road project—a strategic land and rail corridor connecting the Grand Faw Port in southern Iraq to the Turkish border and onward to Europe—which aims to transform Iraq and Türkiye into a global commercial hub for supply chains.

On the popular level, Türkiye’s growing influence—manifested as “Erdoğanism” with all the Islamic orientations and aspirations held in the public's historical memory—is perceived by the masses as a counter to the anti-Islamic nature of Kemalism. This image itself generates a powerful public sentiment, interpreted by the street as the “Ottomanization” of the region, rather than the reverse. It is a fundamental political fact that the ruling political elites across the Islamic world—including Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP)—do not think politically in accordance with Islam; rather, they think as the West desires. Their political thought and output serve to implement American schemes rather than to look after the affairs of Muslims.

America deals with us solely from a position of power and influence, disregarding values, ethics, and ideological distinctiveness; yet, it has forgotten—or feigns forgetfulness. The United States that existed prior to a potential war with Iran is not the same U.S. that would emerge afterward. Today, it is grappling with stifling domestic crises—economic, moral, and political. The political prestige it once cultivated and used as a shield for so long has collapsed during the war on Gaza—a conflict it orchestrated—and the moral model it once loudly championed no longer resonates with the peoples of the world. The war of genocide has stripped away the veneer of Western values—such as human rights and women's rights—laying bare the reality for all to see, near and far.

America’s schemes for the Muslim World are destined for long-term failure; political observers can clearly see its stumbling and decline. Furthermore, the growing maturity of Muslim peoples and their deep yearning for Islam present a formidable, insurmountable obstacle for the disbelieving colonialist.

In recent years, there has been increasing discourse among Western philosophers and political writers regarding the crisis of liberal democracy and the search for alternative governance models outside traditional frameworks. Indeed, I agree with America that the Middle East is poised for radical strategic and geopolitical change—but not a change tailored to American interests. Instead, it will be a change aligned with the greatness of Islam: its authentic creed, its radiant Shariah, and the Khilafah Rashidah (rightly-guided Caliphate) on the Method of the Prophethood—as foretold by the Truthful and Trustworthy Prophet (saw). Nothing separates us from this transformation save for placing our trust and tawwakul (reliance) in Allah (swt), coupled with the efforts of sincere individuals who emulate their Prophet’s methodology and life, having dedicated themselves entirely to Allah (swt).