Question:

“The Turkish presidency announced on Monday that the President of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Tufan Erhürman, will visit Ankara next Thursday, 13/11/2025... Burhanettin Duran, head of the Turkish presidential communications department, said that Erhürman's visit to Ankara comes in response to an invitation by President Erdoğan, and Duran added that the visit will be Erhurman's first foreign stop… And on 19 October the Turkish Cypriot High Election Board announced the victory of the leader of the Republican Turkish Party, Tufan Erhürman, in the presidential elections.” (Anadolu Agency, 10/11/2025). So what brought about this rapprochement? Knowing that Erhurman, during his election campaign, was calling for unifying the island, while Erdogan was calling for two states? And is America behind the rapprochement? And may Allah reward you with goodness.

Answer:

To clarify the answer to the above questions, we review the following matters:

First: The opposition candidate in Northern Cyprus, Tufan Erhurman, won from the first round of the elections and obtained more than 62% of the votes compared to less than 36% for the current president Ersin Tatar. (RT, 19/10/2025). The new thing in these elections is that the opposition candidate, who built his election campaign on unifying the island with Greek Cyprus, won from the first round and by a large margin, while the current president who calls for the two-state solution— the solution Turkiye has been promoting for decades— fell. To understand the local and international implications of these results, we review the following:

1. From the angle of the Turkish presence in Northern Cyprus: Turkiye during its alignment with the British, exploited the marginalization of Turkish Muslim Cypriots by the Greek Cypriots and intervened militarily in 1974 to prevent the entry of American influence into the island through America’s agents, and it achieved that at the time. But Erdoğan’s years in power have transferred Turkey from the British camp to the American camp, and thus the Turkish presence in the northern part of the island has become a stick in the hand of America. As for the local situation, secularists continued to have the upper hand in the north of the island, and government officials continued to prevent girls from even wearing the headscarf (Khimar) in schools. When the Prime Minister’s decision allowed that in April 2025, the Supreme Constitutional Court annulled the decision in September 2025 (Haberler Newspaper, 25/9/2025), which indicates the deep penetration of extreme secularism in Northern Cyprus.

2. And because Turkey did not transfer any successful economic experience to the northern part of the island, and the situation in the northern part remained marginal economically, and it even turned into a haven for unclean money, and casinos spread... while on the other hand, Greek Cyprus became in 2004 a member of the European Union and joined the Eurozone in 2008. All of this increased the appetite of those calling for the reunification of the island with Greek Cyprus, especially since Turkey has been knocking on the door of the European Union for decades and it is not opened for her!

Second: This local climate, these ties with Turkey, and this secular rush contributed to this election result where the candidate Tufan Erhürman won overwhelmingly and from the first round. But these local conditions were not the main driver that produced this victory, as the shifts in the international scene and the natural gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean cast their shadows. The clarification is as follows:

1. The Russian war in Ukraine: As part of preparing for all possible scenarios of the development of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the possibility of Russia controlling the Black Sea, America is strengthening its military presence in its bases in Greece, including transferring some land equipment. To confront these Russian risks, America’s view of Cyprus as a “fixed aircraft carrier” in the region is renewed, and thus America revives its old dreams of establishing military bases on the island. The war in Ukraine increases America’s need for bases on the island. From the angle of Middle East wars, America sees a military presence in Cyprus as more stable than its presence in the Arab region, whose fluctuations and rising Islamic sentiment it fears may expel American influence.

2. The natural gas discoveries: The large gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean during the past two decades whet the appetite of American energy companies already engaged today in exploiting gas fields in the region, and push America to extend more of its influence. In this matter, Cyprus is an important link, whether from production or pipeline routes. For this reason, the US ambassador to Cyprus continuously meets the Cypriot president and discusses with him oil and gas discovery matters since 2018, as well as congressional visits to Nicosia. Because of this gas, new conflicts arose between the states of the region over maritime economic borders. And when the Trump administration returned again at the beginning of the year, the momentum of American energy companies returned with it, and the Trump administration began racing to dominate natural gas production in the Eastern Mediterranean, making it an additional tool to the existing tools for tying Europe to it in energy matters after depriving it of Russian gas.

3. Britain’s weakness after Brexit: America’s view of Britain changed after its weakness appeared following Brexit. Despite America’s promises of a major trade agreement when Britain left the European Union in 2020—promises that did not materialize—the Trump administration instead imposed customs tariffs that began shutting down British factories. And America’s new view requires inheriting Britain’s influence and exploiting its tools, especially Cyprus. The American magazine, The National Interest—known for its conservative Trump-leaning stance—published on 8/11/2024 an article by American right-wing figure Michael Rubin, calling on America to push Britain out of Cyprus and to take Britain’s two military bases Akrotiri and Dhekelia, which constitute 3% of the island’s area.

4. The predominant likelihood is that these international shifts and gas discoveries have produced a new American orientation toward the reunification of Cyprus. The Trump administration, during his first term, lifted the arms embargo imposed on Cyprus since 1987: (The United States announced on Tuesday that it partially and for one year lifted the embargo it had imposed for more than thirty years on selling Cyprus military equipment... The US State Department said in a statement that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo “informed” the President of the Republic of Cyprus, Nikos, “of his decision to lift restrictions on the export, re-export and transfer of non-lethal defense materials and defense services.” (Swiss info, 2/9/2020). This lifting is renewed annually. Then the Biden administration completed this path by signing an important defense agreement with Cyprus: “Cyprus and the United States signed a framework agreement for defense cooperation defining ways to enhance the two countries’ response to regional humanitarian crises and security concerns.” (Youm7, 10/9/2024).

Third: In a very rare event that occurred only in 1970 and 1996, American President Biden received the Cypriot president in Washington. This was at the end of Biden's term and after the announcement of Trump’s victory, and America declared its position: (The American president, who received President Nikos Christodoulides at the White House, said in his statements before the meeting: “I remain optimistic about the possibility of unifying Cyprus on the basis of a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation. The United States is ready to provide any support we can to achieve this goal.” For his part, President Nikos affirmed that he counts on the support of the United States regarding the Cyprus issue…” (Cyprus News Agency, 30/10/2024). Before that: “The Cypriot administration’s defense minister, Pálmas, stated that construction of a helicopter base near Larnaca is underway, and Cypriot Greek administration media reported that the base will be designated for the United States.” (Turkey Today Newspaper, 29/7/2024).

Fourth: As for Turkey, it had announced its rejection of the defense agreement between Greek Cyprus and America (Turkish Foreign Ministry website, 11 September 2024). But as a state subordinate to America, it cannot oppose something America has decided. So Turkey began holding high-level meetings with Greek officials, and even contacted officials in Greek Cyprus although Turkey does not recognize them:

1. “Cypriot officials said the Turkish and Cypriot presidents met on the sidelines of a summit in Hungary today, Thursday, in a rare encounter. The Cypriot government’s deputy spokesperson Yannis said on X that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan was also present.” (Al-Ittihad News, 7/11/2024). This could only be at America's request to push Turkey to prepare acceptance for the American solution.

2. When Turkey escalated tensions with Greece, it did so according to the wishes of Trump’s first administration. When Biden came and followed a policy of returning to leading his European allies, Turkey—Erdoğan aligned with this American stance contrary to the previous administration.

3. Turkey’s opposition to the American defense cooperation with Greek Cyprus in 2024 was without real effect, as Erdoğan’s meeting with the Greek Cypriot president came shortly after that opposition! This is evidence that Erdoğan’s Turkey adjusts itself according to American direction.

Fifth: As for the statement of the president-elect of Northern Cyprus: “Erhürman described his victory as “a victory for all Turkish Cypriots, of all affiliations,” affirming his determination to manage foreign policy “in close coordination with Turkey” to preserve unity of rank and stance.” (Al Jazeera Net, 20/10/2025). This is to prepare the atmosphere for rapprochement between the two sides toward implementing the American plan for a federation in Cyprus. For this reason, Erdoğan’s ally and leader of the Turkish nationalists, Devlet Bahçeli, became furious, rejecting the results, and called for the Northern Cypriot Parliament to urgently convene to reject the results and declare joining the Turkish Republic (RT, 19/10/2025). But Erdoğan himself, “Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan congratulated on Sunday the leader of the Republican Turkish Party in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Tufan Erhürman, on his victory in the presidential elections.” (Anadolu Agency, 19/10/2025), and he even boasted of the maturity of democracy in Northern Cyprus. The firm positions are heard from Turkish circles distant from governance, while Erdoğan’s circle, immersed in America’s orbit, adopts positions according to American direction. For this reason, Erdoğan abandoned annexing Cyprus or the two-state solution and started inclining toward federation.

Sixth: Accordingly, the likely scenario is that negotiations for unifying the island of Cyprus will accelerate according to the American solution on the basis of a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation, in which Greek Cypriots will have the upper hand while Turkish Muslim Cypriots will have lesser political rights, in harmony with America’s war on Islam and its vision for a greater role for Greek-character Cyprus aligned with America. Turkey has put itself in America’s orbit and cannot oppose it. If local, Turkish, and international conditions remain as they are today, the path will be open this time for successful negotiations within a federal union framework according to the American vision. And it is not unlikely that Tufan Erhürman’s visit to Turkey on Thursday, 13/11/2025, is the first step in implementing America's plan for a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation, with internal matters of each zone administered separately, while defense and foreign affairs are mainly in the hands of the federal government—i.e., the Greek Cypriots. And if matters proceed as America wants, its plan will include evacuating Cyprus of foreign forces (Britain’s two bases and the Turkish forces) so that America alone will have bases in Northern Cyprus!

Seventh: It is truly painful that the dominance of the colonial kufar continues to rise over Muslim lands one after another before the hearing and sight of the Muslim rulers without them even denouncing this dominance, let alone taking a reaction that pushes it back to its own lands, and even pursuing it as it was pursued during the era of the Khilafah Rashidah (rightly guided Caliphate) until Islam spread with its justice throughout the world... But how can rulers loyal to the colonial kufar stand against them? Cyprus is a witness: America does whatever it wants in it, even though it is an Islamic island conquered by the Muslims during the Khilafah of our master ‘Uthman, the third Khalifah Rashid (Rightly guided Caliph), in 28 AH. It was one of the first naval expeditions of the Muslims, and many Sahaba’a (Companions) participated, including Abu Dharr, ‘Ubada ibn al-Samit with his wife Umm Haram, Abu al-Darda’, and Shaddad ibn Aws (Radya Allah Anhom). The grave of the noble Sahabyah Umm Haram remains a well-known landmark in Cyprus. Cyprus has a place in Islamic history; therefore, when the European Crusaders occupied it in their first crusades against Muslim lands, the Muslims did not rest until they liberated it and returned it to the lands of Islam. Then it became part of the Ottoman State (Uthmani Khilafah) as with the rest of Muslim lands when the Khilafah moved to them. When the Khilafah was abolished, the British annexed Cyprus to their colonies. But just as the Muslims returned it from the Crusaders to the House of Islam, they will return it again by Allah’s permission, the Mighty, the Praiseworthy. This is the correct solution for Cyprus: that it returns to its origin as an Islamic land as it was within the Uthmani Khilafah, and it must return to being part of Turkey until the Khilafah returns again, and the rayah (banner) of Islam rises over both of them and over all Muslim lands. And this will indeed occur, by Allah’s permission, and that is the great triumph. This is the solution and it is the truth:

[فَمَاذَا بَعْدَ الْحَقِّ إِلَّا الضَّلَالُ فَأَنَّى تُصْرَفُونَ]

“So what is there after truth except error? How then are you turned away?” [Yunus:32].

And it is not the solution planned by America or previously by Britain. In other words, the solution is not that Cyprus should become two states, whether one is annexed to Turkey and the other to Greece, or unannexed, nor that Cyprus becomes a federal state governed by the Romans, nor even a single state governed by the Romans; for any Islamic land cannot be left for kuffar to have authority over:

[وَلَنْ يَجْعَلَ اللَّهُ لِلْكَافِرِينَ عَلَى الْمُؤْمِنِينَ سَبِيلًا]

“And Allah will never allow the disbelievers to have a way over the believers.” [An-Nisa:141]. Cyprus will, by Allah’s permission, return as it was—an Islamic land. Days rotate, and many hands have passed over Cyprus, but the end is always for the righteous:

[وَاللَّهُ غَالِبٌ عَلَى أَمْرِهِ وَلَكِنَّ أَكْثَرَ النَّاسِ لَا يَعْلَمُونَ]

“And Allah is predominant over His affair, but most of the people do not know.” [Yusuf:21].

21 Jumada al-Awwal 1447 AH
12 November 2025 CE