Is Kazakhstan moving away from Russia?

News:

President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the plenary meeting of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum with the participation of Vladimir Putin on June 17 noted that Kazakhstan does not recognize the independence of the so-called "DPR" and "LPR".

Answering the question of the moderator - Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the Russian state television channel RT and the Rossiya Segodnya media group - about how Kazakhstan views the "special operation" in Ukraine.

«In general, it is estimated that if the right of nations to self-determination is actually realized throughout the globe, then instead of 193 states that are now members of the United Nations, more than 500 or 600 states will appear on earth.

Of course it will be chaos. For this reason, we do not recognize either Taiwan, or Kosovo, or South Ossetia, or Abkhazia. And, apparently, this principle will be applied to quasi-state territories, which, in our opinion, are Lugansk and Donetsk.”, — said Tokaev.

Comment:

Tokayev’s statements at the St. Petersburg forum under President Putin about not recognizing the DPR and LPR caused a serious outcry, many regarded them as a bold step by an independent leader who pursues an independent foreign and domestic policy and who is able to express his point of view, even if it is so unpleasant for the Kremlin.

In the wake of the hype, some journalists and experts even began to say that Putin allegedly did not expect such a demarche from Tokayev that Tokayev spat in Putin's face. Many took the Kazakh president's statements seriously - for example, Ramzan Kadyrov reacted sharply to the incident, demanding that the Central Asian regimes immediately express support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Therefore, the question arises, has Kazakhstan really moved away from Russia so much that Tokayev allowed himself such a bold political step?

Tokayev’s statements at the forum about Ukraine are a political statement agreed upon with the Kremlin in advance, Kazakh political scientist Dimash Alzhanov believes. “The task was to show Tokayev as an independent and courageous politician, a diplomat who boldly parries questions and at the same time pursues a pragmatic policy,” - says Alzhanov.

Indeed, how can the Kazakh regime, which back in January of this year, during the mass anti-government protests, was in danger of falling, and which, in fact, was saved only thanks to the intervention of the Russian army, can pursue an independent anti-Russian foreign policy?

Moreover, for the public position of Kazakhstan regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine was known in advance, because the Kazakh Foreign Ministry has repeatedly made, though streamlined, but still disapproving statements about this. Obviously, the moderator of the forum, Margarita Simonyan, would not have asked Tokayev a question if it had not been agreed in advance, as is usually the case at events of this level.

Consequently, Kazakhstan continues to be under the influence of Russia, and in some aspects the Kremlin, in its economic interests, allows Tokayev to take one or another political position, which in general does not mean the loss of the Kremlin's influence over Kazakhstan, but only means that Russia wants to use Kazakhstan as a backdoor to bypass numerous economic sanctions from the West.

Written for the Central Media Office of Hizb ut Tahrir by
Umar Farsi