Russian Drones in Poland. Coincidence or Regularity?

News:

On 11 September, DW reported: “On the night of 10 September, at least 19 Russian drones crossed the Polish border, with a significant number of them arriving from Belarus. In addition to the Polish Air Force, fighter jets from other NATO countries were also deployed to intercept the drones. The wreckage of the drones damaged a residential building in the village of Vyryki near the border with Belarus and Ukraine, but there were no casualties. Warsaw stated that Russia had deliberately attacked Poland and requested consultations with its NATO allies in accordance with Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius stated in the Bundestag that Russian drones were clearly launched deliberately into Polish territory. According to him, there is no reason to believe that this was a mistake in course correction.

The Russian Ministry of Defence responded by stating that it had ‘no plans’ to strike targets in Poland. The Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, General Wiesław Kukula, said that the Polish military had received a warning from Belarus about the movement of UAVs. ‘The Belarusians warned us that drones were heading in our direction through their airspace,” he said.

Comment:

Over the course of several years, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that he has no intention of attacking NATO countries. His most recent statement was made in St. Petersburg on 19 June. At that time, Putin denied claims that Russia was planning to attack NATO countries. Today, Russia is not ready to open a new front, but perhaps there is a plan behind this aggression against Poland, Romania and the Baltic states, and it does not originate from Russia itself, but is most likely one of the US's manoeuvres.

On 10 July, in an interview with the American television channel NBC, Trump stated that: “We send weapons to NATO, and NATO pays for these weapons in full. Thus, the weapons we send are sent to NATO, and then NATO supplies these weapons to Ukraine, and NATO pays for these weapons.”

A few days later, some European countries objected to this statement. France, Italy and the Czech Republic refused to pay for American weapons for Ukraine. A few days later, in an interview with TASS, Viktor Vodolatskiy, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, said: “The refusal of four European countries to purchase weapons from the US for subsequent transfer to Ukraine is a short-term phenomenon. In any case, Trump will persuade them to do so, and they will do whatever he says.” Where does this confidence come from? Perhaps he knows some details of the agreements between Putin and Trump.

Shortly after these events, on 4 September, Trump announced that the United States would cease funding the armed forces of Eastern European countries. The main recipients of the funds were Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The US justified these actions by citing Trump's policy of “reassessing and redistributing” foreign aid and the fact that Europe should provide for its own defence.

These actions and statements by the US, leaving Europe unprotected from the Russian threat, reveal an intention to encourage Europe to purchase American weapons more quickly. This is supported by the fact that the US and NATO did not react harshly to the violation of Polish airspace by Russian drones, except for increasing border security. In turn, Poland has asked its NATO allies to provide it with air defence systems and technology to combat drones.

It is noteworthy that Russian drones flew in from Belarus, and President Lukashenko appeared on the scene earlier. Trump spoke with Lukashenko on the phone the day before his meeting with Putin in Alaska on 15 August. Negotiations between the US and Lukashenko began much earlier. A number of sanctions were lifted from Belarus for the release of political prisoners, including American citizens, which is also a new development in the history of Lukashenko's rule.

Until now, Europe has talked about Ukraine as a buffer zone on its southern flank, but the threat from Russia on the northern flank via Belarus remains unresolved. The US has left the Baltic states without assistance and is establishing relations with Lukashenko, which has greatly alarmed Europe and will most likely prompt it to immediately purchase American weapons.

The Baltic states, Poland and others have long and faithfully served American interests, both in Europe and the Middle East, but despite this, the US readily uses them as bargaining chips. Friendship with the US does not bring anything good to anyone. Here, it is necessary to quote Henry Kissinger, who, after the well-known events in South Vietnam, made the following remark: “...it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.”

Written for the Central Media Office of Hizb ut Tahrir by
Eldar Khamzin
Member of the Central Media Office of Hizb ut Tahrir