The fragile de-escalation currently prevailing between Iran and the United States carries multiple dimensions amidst the ongoing military and political tensions—and the associated instability in energy markets and maritime corridors—spawned by America’s war on Iran. What is unfolding is a complex interplay of security, economic, and political calculations and their consequences, alongside the interests of regional and international powers. Consequently, this de-escalation must be examined from various, interconnected angles—viewing the event not merely from the American perspective, but also from the standpoints of Iran, regional states, China, Europe, and the rest of the world, all of which have suffered damage as a result of this conflict.

On 28 February 2026, acting with sheer arrogance, the United States launched a war against Iran. The objective was to transform Iran from a satellite state merely orbiting the American sphere of influence into a full-fledged subordinate state that would realize America’s vision for a “New Middle East”—a war Washington declared would last only a few days to achieve its aims.

However, voices within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) argued that America’s actions—including the killing of top - and second-tier leaders—demonstrated that the services Iran had rendered to the U.S. over more than four decades counted for nothing. The IRGC managed to absorb the blow, contain domestic unrest, and appoint a new Supreme Leader. Seeing an opportunity to break free from the American orbit, these voices—which exerted significant influence over the political class that had previously aligned with American wishes—began directing painful strikes against bases of the United States and the Jewish entity, inflicting severe damage. They also leveraged a key strategic card at their disposal: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, thereby ensuring that the dimensions and repercussions of the war extended to nations across the globe. This view fluctuated between prominence and obscurity depending on events throughout the war and the subsequent rounds of negotiations. In one of these rounds, the political faction in Iran succeeded in signing a framework agreement with the United States to halt the war—a move the U.S. sought to extricate itself from its predicament by pressuring its proxies in Pakistan and elsewhere to compel Iran to sign. At the time, the Ameer of Hizb ut Tahrir, the eminent ‘alim Ata Bin Khalil Abu Rashta, issued a response to a question outlining the “landmines” embedded in the agreement’s terms—a warning confirmed when the war resumed for additional days.

This war failed to achieve any of America’s declared objectives; instead, it exposed the frailty and weakness of the American state. Dragging on for over six months, the conflict revealed deep political and military divisions within the U.S., leading to numerous dismissals and resignations. It was accompanied by widespread public outcry demanding an end to the war due to the economic damage caused by soaring energy prices, as well as military opposition stemming from the depletion of ammunition stocks—which could not be replenished quickly due to America’s economic crisis and a debt exceeding $40 trillion. The manufacturing sector required years to address these shortages—a reality underscored by the public rift between Trump and his Secretary of Defense and calls from military leaders to halt the conflict. Compounding these issues was the approach of the midterm elections, the results of which could influence the presidential election two years later.

All these factors drove America to seek a way out of the impasse—aiming to achieve its goals or at least maintain the status quo—through various measures: a naval blockade that proved ineffective; a failed attempt at a ground invasion; fruitless secret negotiations with the IRGC; and efforts to sever Iran’s ties with its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq. These moves were followed by a Saudi-led naval coalition of over a dozen nations to secure passage through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and a military alliance involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan—designed to incite Muslims to fight one another, and to serve as leverage to force Iran to yield to U.S. demands—alongside intensified economic sanctions intended to inflict damage on Iran. Indeed, America possesses the military hardware and capabilities to deliver a massive military strike against Iran—one that could decisively settle the matter. Yet, were it to do so, it would face such exhaustion that its status as the world's leading power—vis-à-vis rivals like China—would be jeopardized. Furthermore, the region's rulers would express deep resentment and discontent, having seen their st\tes and peoples harmed and realizing America’s inability to shield them from Iranian counter-strikes. Such a strike could trigger regional—and even global—chaos beyond America’s control, unleashing a chain of events that might spiral out of hand.

For years, as the world’s preeminent power, America has resorted to its habitual tactics of killing, destruction, and bombardment—including against Iran. When these methods failed to yield results, it tasked the Ruwaibidah (lowly insignificant rulers) of this era with overseeing negotiations with Iran, hoping they might extricate America from its predicament or cultivate traitors within Iran to achieve what America itself could not. Yet, the prevailing sentiment now emerging in Iran favors breaking free from American hegemony—a shift that, unless harnessed in a manner pleasing to Allah (swt), will inevitably fade away.

We offer this message seeking only the pleasure of Allah (swt), and we tender this counsel to those at the helm in Iran: Your strikes against America and its protégé have inflicted real pain, exposing their weakness and humiliation; for despite possessing vast military hardware, they lack the mettle of true men. Through your military and industrial capabilities—and the blessings Allah (swt) has bestowed upon Iran, including a strategic location, geographical diversity enabling food self-sufficiency, abundant energy, gas, and mineral resources, and a divinely ordained ideology. With the help of Allah (swt) we are capable of making Iran a support point (نقطة ارتكاز nuqtah irtikaaz) for the Khilafah Rashidah (Rightly-Guided Caliphate). Therefore, abandon sectarian, denominational, and nationalist rhetoric, and instead direct the message of pure, unadulterated Islam—as it was revealed to the Messenger of Allah (saw)—toward Muslim peoples and their sincere soldiers. This is a decisive moment and a gift from Allah (swt); perhaps it will find attentive and discerning ears. Allah (swt) said,

[وَإِن تَتَوَلَّوْا يَسْتَبْدِلْ قَوْماً غَيْرَكُمْ ثُمَّ لَا يَكُونُوا أَمْثَالَكُمْ]

“And if you turn away, He will replace you with another people; then they will not be the likes of you.” [TMQ Surah Muhammad: 38].