Pakistan and Turkiye: The Next Phase in the Redrawing of the Muslim World?

New:

The U.S. designated Pakistan a major non-NATO ally in 2004 but tensions rose again after Tulsi Gabbard labeled Pakistan a potential future missile threat in a 2026 intelligence report, despite remaining a key regional ally with nuclear capabilities.

Comment:

The recent designation of Pakistan as an “emerging missile threat” by Tulsi Gabbard is not an isolated statement, but a clear indication of a broader geopolitical trajectory. The increasing pressure on Turkiye by “Israel” must also be understood in this light. What is unfolding today is not an incident, but a continuation of a trend that has been developing for decades: the redrawing of the Muslim world through the fragmentation and weakening of existing states.

The colonial structures that shaped the current borders and political systems in the Muslim world were designed for a different era: an era in which direct domination was central. Today, that form has changed, but the objective remains the same. The strategy is simple: further divide and weaken Muslim countries so that they cannot develop their potential or emerge as independent powers in the future. This can be seen in Iraq, where the state was torn apart along internal lines; in Syria, which was transformed into a battlefield for external interests; and in Sudan, which was split and remains persistently unstable. At the same time, Iran has been under sustained pressure for years, with open attempts to internally destabilize the country.

Within this ongoing pattern, new targets are now becoming visible. Pakistan is not being accused based on its current actions, but on its potential and what it could become in the future. A striking example of this is the statement made by Joe Biden in October 2022, shortly after the removal of Prime Minister Imran Khan: “Pakistan is maybe one of the most dangerous nations in the world. Nuclear weapons without any cohesion.” With this, Biden highlighted the perceived danger of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in a context of political instability and lack of central cohesion. Implicitly pointing to the perceived need for U.S. influence to maintain control over this risk. Shortly thereafter, the U.S. State Department nuanced this by stating: “The United States is confident of Pakistan’s commitment and its ability to secure its nuclear assets. The US has always viewed a secure and prosperous Pakistan as critical to US interests.” This clearly reflects that Pakistan is crucial to the U.S., precisely because its nuclear capability represents a potential risk if not kept under firm control: a pattern rooted in broader concerns about proliferation and instability.

Turkey also falls within this framework, as it is a Muslim country with the potential to pursue an independent course. While both countries have thus far aligned with U.S. agendas, they are simultaneously viewed with suspicion by the United States due to the potential of Islam as a unifying force, as well as their military capacity and strategic weight.

These developments cannot be separated from the role of “Israel” in the region. As a nuclear power, “Israel” has a vested interest in ensuring that no surrounding state develops into a strong and independent counterforce. A fragmented and weakened Muslim world forms the foundation for maintaining this dominance. This aligns directly with U.S. strategic interests, in which regional dynamics are shaped to prevent the rise of strong, independent powers.

We can see all of this unfolding. The urgent question now is: will we stand by as the United States continues to divide and structurally weaken the Muslim world, or will we break free from these constraints? The only path forward is unity, by bringing Muslim countries together under one leadership that is loyal to Islam and the Muslims, and that defends their collective interests without compromise to external powers that sustain fragmentation.

At the core of the problem lies the current political order: the division into separate, secular nation-states has not brought strength, but rather division and vulnerability. This structure enables countries to be pressured one by one, without any unified resistance.

As long as this reality is not recognized and broken, the cycle of fragmentation will continue. Pakistan and Turkey are not exceptions, but the next links in a process that has been unfolding for decades. Those who watch today will become the next victims tomorrow. Only by recognizing this trend, rejecting it, and actively forging unity under a Khalifah (caliph) can the Muslim world prevent further disintegration and structural weakening.

Written for the Central Media Office of Hizb ut Tahrir by
Okay Pala
Media Representative of Hizb ut Tahrir in The Netherlands