بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Question:
The Sultanate of Oman, which is mediating the US-Iran negotiations, announced on Thursday (the postponement of the fourth round of talks scheduled for Saturday in the Italian capital, Rome, for "logistical reasons," without specifying a new date. Asharq,1/5/2025.) The indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran began on 12/4/2025, in the Omani capital, Muscat, with the mediation of Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi. The second round was held on19/4/2025, at the Sultanate of Oman's embassy in Rome, also with the mediation of Minister al-Busaidi. The third round was held on Saturday, 26/4/2025, in the Sultanate of Oman, under the same Omani mediation. The question is: Why is Trump now seeking to re-sign a nuclear agreement with Iran, despite having unilaterally withdrawn in 2018 from the agreement signed on 14/7/2015? Why was the fourth round postponed? What do the logistical reasons mean? And does this postponement mean the end of negotiations?
Answer:
We must first review the circumstances that prevailed in 2015 when the nuclear agreement was concluded between Iran and Western countries. Then, we must return to the context of Trump's withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 and the circumstances at that time. We must then examine the recent developments surrounding the negotiations between the United States and Iran:
1- The factors that prompted the United States in 2015 to conclude the nuclear agreement with Iran: In response to a question on 22/7/2015, regarding America's signing of the agreement, we said: (The American president managed the negotiations from afar, through live contact and immense concern in respect to convening this agreement. He occupied his Secretary of State for three continuous weeks in addition to the contacts that were made before that which indicates the importance and significance of this agreement to America, its interests and the interests of Obama’s administration as it had constricted Iran for decades and prevented it from manufacturing any nuclear weapon. And if we connect this to the previous statements of the American president and other American officials in respect to the importance of the Iranian strategic role in the region and the readiness to work with it, indeed to actually work with it as is (already) apparent, in addition to the statements of the Iranian officials in which they have announced their cooperation with America in Iraq and Afghanistan in addition to their readiness to work with it in fighting terrorism and extremism, and what we see in terms of America’s implicit agreement to what Iran and its party (in Lebanon) is doing in Syria, we find that all of this indicates that America's goal behind this agreement is to ease and facilitate matters for Iran through the lifting of sanctions and anchoring its open relationship with it so that it can continue to play the role that would make it easier for America’s work, lightens its burdens and provides a cover for its games with the states and peoples in the region. Therefore, Iran will implement the American policy in practise as the case in Iraq, Syria and Yemen but instead of this being implemented from behind a curtain that obscures sight as it had been (before the agreement), it will now take place behind a transparent curtain or no curtain at all…!)
Therefore, Obama concluded the nuclear agreement with Iran on 14/7/2015 to revitalize its role in Syria
2- The factors that prompted the Trump administration in 2018 to cancel the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran:
a. Washington brought Saudi Arabia and Turkey into the regional arena, with Turkey being actively involved in the region. In 2016, Turkey launched Operation “Euphrates Shield”, and in March 2018, it launched Operation “Olive Branch”. This was in addition to Saudi Arabia's regional role. Consequently, there was no longer a need for Iran to play a major role in Syria, and it had to be reduced. This is precisely what Trump did; he reduced Iran's role in the region, transforming it from a major player to a secondary or complementary role.
b. European countries were also party to the 2015 nuclear agreement and were the main beneficiaries of it. However, Trump did not want Europe to benefit from the agreement signed during the Obama administration, so he canceled it.
Thus, Trump announced his withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran, as it was in America's interest to withdraw from the agreement in preparation for new conditions that would mitigate Iran's role in the region.
3- The factors that prompted Trump to return to the nuclear agreement he cancelled in 2018 in 2025:
Considering the events that followed Trump's inauguration on 20/1/ 2025, the motivations that prompted the United States to return to the nuclear agreement become clear:
a- It is clear that the Trump administration was the one that initiated the resumption of the nuclear negotiations with Iran. Trump sent a letter to Tehran on March 7th, through Omani mediation, expressing his explicit desire to return to negotiations to reach a new agreement. (US President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Network that he sent a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Thursday, March 6th, expressing his preference for negotiating a deal with Tehran. Trump added in his interview, which is scheduled to air the day after tomorrow, Sunday: “The other option is that action must be taken, because Iran must not obtain a nuclear weapon.” Regarding the text of the letter he sent to Khamenei, Trump said: “I told him I hope you negotiate, because that would be much better for Iran.”... Iran International, 7/3/2025.).
b- In 2018, Trump nullified the nuclear agreement because the major gains from the agreement signed in 2015 between the five permanent members and Germany went to the Europeans. Therefore, Trump excluded European countries from the nuclear negotiations with Iran, unlike what happened in 2015, and did not consult with them or inform them of the negotiations that took place in Oman, in order to block Europe’s efforts to hold nuclear talks with Iran. (European diplomats told Reuters that they are seeking to hold a new meeting with Iran, but those efforts apparently froze when Tehran began indirect talks about its nuclear program with the administration of US President Donald Trump earlier this month. The United States did not inform European countries of the nuclear talks in the Sultanate of Oman before Trump announced them... Asharq, 24/4/2025) Even the choice of Italy, headed by right-wing Prime Minister Meloni, who received support from the Trump administration, as the venue for the second round is a message directed at European countries that have entered into conflict and opposition with it, especially Britain, France and Germany, under the pretext of NATO.
c- The United States intends to direct all its attention and resources toward global competition with China; therefore, it seeks to eliminate any elements that pose a problem to it and divert its energy. The ongoing negotiations with Russia can be explained by the same logic: they aim to lure Russia to the negotiating table through the Ukrainian crisis, thereby separating it from China, with the goal of weakening the Sino-Russian axis. Thus, Trump is making containing China a strategic priority.
d- The Jewish entity's desire to attack Iran under the pretext of preventing it from obtaining nuclear weapons. As we know, the Jewish entity launched an attack on Iran in October 2024. Iran responded with missile attacks to demonstrate its strength, after informing the United States and the Jewish entity in advance. Now, the United States does not want to be distracted by such attacks while it is focusing on China. Therefore, it wants to conclude a nuclear agreement with Iran, which will guarantee the security of the Jewish entity and remove the pretext for attack from them. With this step, after concluding the nuclear agreement with Iran, Trump, the most supportive of the Jewish entity in the White House, will remove the pretext for conflict from the Jewish entity and will remove their argument. At the same time, he will place American economic interests and confronting China at the forefront of his priorities, enabling him to focus entirely on China, without anything disturbing his focus or being hindered by any obstacle.
Thus, Trump began these talks with Iran to conclude an agreement that would limit Iran's nuclear capabilities in isolation from the European countries.
4- As for why the fourth round was postponed, it is for logistical reasons, as reported in the media. The meaning of the word logistics, as stated in Wikipedia, is: (“The art of supply and provision.” Logistics, or what is known in Arabic as the art of logistics, is the art and science of managing the flow of goods, energy, and information..), as if the intention was to arrange the atmosphere and calm the situation after America imposed sanctions in conjunction with the ongoing negotiations between America and Iran. An Iranian official told Reuters [(that the Iranian-American talks will take place at a different date based on American behaviour, noting that Washington’s sanctions on Tehran do not help the diplomatic process seeking to resolve the nuclear dispute). This came after Washington imposed new sanctions on entities it accused of involvement in the illegal trade of Iranian oil and petrochemicals. The United States (had imposed sanctions on Wednesday on entities it accused of involvement in the illegal trade of Iranian oil and petrochemicals, as part of Washington’s efforts to intensify pressure on Iran) Asharq, 1/5/2025]. These sanctions came at a time when the negotiation rounds were taking place seriously, as described. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Ismail Baghaei, said: (Tehran will continue to participate seriously and decisively in negotiations aimed at achieving results with the United States. Asharq, 1/5/2025).
Therefore, it is unlikely that this postponement is a severance of negotiations between the two parties, but rather a time delay to calm the atmosphere due to American sanctions during the ongoing negotiations.
5- It is strange that the rulers of the Muslim countries agree to the American interference in determining the strength, weapons, and industry of Muslims! These rulers do not realize that the preparation of power in Islam is to defeat, frighten, and terrorize the enemy. If the enemy decides for us, in detail, it is a defeat for us, even before its scheduled date! How can Iran allow America to interfere in its power, its missiles, and its nuclear weapons, at a time when America is filling its coffers with nuclear weapons and even deployed them decades ago in Hiroshima and Nagasaki?! America publicly declares that it will not allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons. What Iran and other Muslim rulers should say to America in a loud voice: Destroy your nuclear weapons before asking others not to possess them... and destroy your missiles before asking others to destroy their missiles... As for enemies possessing heavy weapons and asking Muslims not to possess them, that is a statement steeped in brutality, arrogance, and contempt for others, if only they were rational. Allah (swt) made this clear in His Book, in His saying:
[وَأَعِدُّوا لَهُمْ مَا اسْتَطَعْتُمْ مِنْ قُوَّةٍ وَمِنْ رِبَاطِ الْخَيْلِ تُرْهِبُونَ بِهِ عَدُوَّ اللهِ وَعَدُوَّكُمْ وَآخَرِينَ مِنْ دُونِهِمْ لَا تَعْلَمُونَهُمُ اللهُ يَعْلَمُهُمْ وَمَا تُنْفِقُوا مِنْ شَيْءٍ فِي سَبِيلِ اللهِ يُوَفَّ إِلَيْكُمْ وَأَنْتُمْ لَا تُظْلَمُونَ]
“Prepare against them what you ˹believers˺ can of ˹military˺ power and cavalry to deter Allah’s enemies and your enemies as well as other enemies unknown to you but known to Allah. Whatever you spend in the cause of Allah will be paid to you in full and you will not be wronged” [Al-Anfal: 60]
In the introduction to the Constitution, p. 256, [Article 69 states: (It is obligatory to provide the Army with weapons, supplies and equipment, as well as all necessities and requirements, which enable it to carry out its mission as an Islamic Army). His (swt) saying: [تُرْهِبُونَ ] To strike terror” is the reason (Illah) for preparation. The preparation will not be complete unless the reason for which this legislation came has been achieved, which is intimidating the enemies and the hypocrites. Therefore, it is a duty to provide all the arms and equipment for the Army in order that intimidation is produced and by greater reasoning in order to ensure that the Army is capable of carrying out its mission which is Jihad to convey the call to Islam…].
All of this indicates that Muslims must exert every effort to ensure their power is superior to that of the enemy, instilling fear in their hearts. To achieve this, our power must be a source of concern for the enemy, preoccupying and terrifying them. All of this is incompatible with entering into negotiations with the enemy, in which our weapons are limited and we are prevented from controlling our power to intimidate and frighten them. We ask Allah (swt) to enable the pioneer Hizb ut Tahrir, who does not lie to its people, to establish the Islamic State, the Khilafah Rashida (rightly-guided Caliphate), sooner rather than later. This will then terrify the enemy as it did before, spread goodness throughout the world, and turn the plots of the disbelievers back on them:
[وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ]
“And on that day the believers will rejoice * at the victory willed by Allah. He gives victory to whoever He wills. For He is the Almighty, Most Merciful” [Ar-Rum: 4-5]
4 Dhul Qi’dah 1446 AH
2/5/2025 CE